In the event of a bioterror attack, once the biologic agent
has been determined, rapidly estimating the size and
time of attack enables a forecast of the number of persons
who will be symptomatic and will require medical atten-tion
over the days (and perhaps weeks) after the attack.
Such a forecast could play a key role in determining the
response effort required, e.g., surge capacity planning at
hospitals, distributing vaccines or antimicrobial agents to
the population, as appropriate . We refer to early
knowledge of the size and time of an attack as situational
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