Time and Size of Bioterror Attack
by Johan Walden and Edward H. Kaplan

In the event of a bioterror attack, once the biologic agent has been determined, rapidly estimating the size and time of attack enables a forecast of the number of persons who will be symptomatic and will require medical atten-tion over the days (and perhaps weeks) after the attack. Such a forecast could play a key role in determining the response effort required, e.g., surge capacity planning at hospitals, distributing vaccines or antimicrobial agents to the population, as appropriate . We refer to early knowledge of the size and time of an attack as situational awareness.

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