The whole world has been waiting for this news for several weeks already, but anyway it has became a sensation. The U.S.A. and Great Britain started bombing Afghanistan. After the opinion polls in America showed the expectations of the war gained 6% within the recent week, the act of retribution became inevitable.
The acts of terrorism in the States, despite their horror, were just to the point. America’s incursion in Afghanistan seems to be obvious, without the risk of loss. The movement Taliban is not scared – the U.S. prepared the movement. 50 missiles that were launched during the first attack on Afghanistan can not be compared with 2000 tomahavks, which bombed Yugoslavia; about 20 bombing planes can not be compared to 400-500 aircrafts that took part in the air raid over Belgrade. The Talibs realize that Washington is not planning for its “restricted contingent” to land in the 20-million Afghanistan. “Common Americans” are expecting the marines will land right in the rear of the Islamites. This will surely not happen for such an action would simply kill the American soldiers.
Judging by the amount of the American land forces, which are openly concentrated in the region, there are not going to be large land operations held. In general, the idea of the warfare of the new Afghan war leaders has so much in common with the ideas of the Russian general headquarters before the beginning of the Chechen campaign. Pavel Grachev, Russia’s Defense Minister at the time, was going to seize Grozny (Chechnya’s capital) with the help of 1 regiment only. Donald Rumsfeld decided one battalion of the mountain shooters stationed not really far from the city of Tashkent (Uzbekistan republic) would be enough. Tashkent is already under the American control, but how long will it last?
The offensive of the northern Alliance on Kabul amazingly resembles the tank attack on Grozny in the autumn of 1994. America is getting deeper into the regional conflict, which has a trend for extension. After the U.S.A. loses and leaves the region, the processes in it will become absolutely uncontrollable. The break-up of the Russian Federation will be the smallest of such consequences.
The American military bases along the oil-bearing 40th parallel in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenia, Uzbekistan will cut Russia off the Central Asia, they will control the traffic ways from China and India – on the whole America may control the entire Eurasia. However, this strategic line may become a lump that can not be swallowed or spit out. The trump card of the American expansion - the economic well-being – may be topped by another card – the Islamic fundamentalism. It is not possible to outbid a person who is ready to die for his belief. It is not possible to frighten such a person, there is a chance some agreement may be achieved, but it is absolutely pointless to haggle. So the combination of the missile strike and humanitarian aid looks idiotic. America has already demonstrated the absolute incomprehension of the things going, when the American mass media could not say anything definite regarding the events of September 11. According to CNN, the major reason, which caused all that was…cowardice.
It would be silly to believe there are no oriental or Islam experts in the U.S., who would perfectly realize the sense of the civilized discrepancy between the “diplomacy of aircraft-carriers” and “the holy Jihad.” The red tape played a bad joke on America in this respect: the people, who are in the decision-making-process are not really competent (as a rule) in the questions they have to decide. The experts are competent, but they are invited just to confirm the accuracy of the decision, which has already been made.
There hardly was an expert who noticed that the radical, the orthodox Islam to be more precise, found its place in the countries of the third world – having taken the place where communism used to be.
Until the war between the Talibs and the Northern Alliance is the inner affair of the Afghans, their forces are in some dynamic balance. But as soon as the alliance tries to enter Kabul on aggressors’ shoulders, the Taliban will get the colossal moral advantage in front of their adversaries.
This was the effect caused by bin Laden’s TV appearance. The Americans were surprised to see he had no horns and the Muslims saw the determination to take it right to the very end.
The military success is likely to follow in the beginning, but it will be very difficult to keep the seized objects under control – the military force of the enemy will remain undestroyed, the enemy has the absolutely unlimited mobilization reserve. The States will have to leave the region, but Russia and its CIS allies will remain in that hot spot, being involved in the colossal conflict. The Talibs can now mobilize the citizens of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan. Russia may face the prospective of the urgent military operation.
The forecasts pertaining to the outcome of the new Afghan war are vague and mostly unfavorable. It is very hard to say for sure, if Russia is going to be able to defend the communications 10 thousand kilometers long. Anatoli Baranov
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