Balance of power in the Persian Gulf
and the American war drive.

At present with more than half it's active armed forces concentrated in the Persian Gulf region under the pretext of preparing to invade Iraq America has created a dangerous force which can upset the integrity of any nation in that region. As I write this most of the world has united to stop the American war drive against Iraq and with United Nations inspectors in Iraq receiving full cooperation the American military presence in the Gulf is meaningless. Meaningless, unless we consider other reasons for it being there.

Right now the American troops in the Persian Gulf region are overextended, short of critical supplies, and opposed by most of the world for bullying a weak nation like Iraq, with American attempts to downplay their military strength in the Gulf have been thwarted by the independent media. Iraqi cooperation with the U.N. and world opposition to a war with Iraq will eventually force America to leave the Persian Gulf.

However, the slightest act of aggression from Iraq, be it real or staged, would cause much of the world to support an American invasion and occupation of Iraq. If that were to be done the future of Iraq as a nation would be in question. With America simultaneously supporting Iraqi dissidents, Kurdish rebels in Iraq, and plans to put Iraq under Jordanian rule, as well as territorial claims Iran and other nations are pressing without American aid, the future of Iraq as a whole nation after a war is likely to be that of a divided and conquered land.

The territorial integrity of other nations in the Persian Gulf is another thing that needs to be considered if we are to explain the American presence in the Gulf. At present many dissident groups from Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Arab nations of Syria and Egypt are active in America spreading propaganda about how oppressive the current government's in their respective countries are. In most cases the groups spreading this propaganda are small, marginalized bands that do not speak for their peoples. Yet, this is something that the American government either ignores or chooses to ignore to further it's interests in the region.

These marginalized groups are a threat to their peoples in that they help discredit those of their peoples who are suffering unjustly. For example, the Israeli government has occupied Palestinian and Arab national territories since 1967 and has been promoting the ideal of Eretz Israel, the land between the Nile, Tigris, and Euphrates rivers which Israel has no legitimate claim to whatsoever. There are many activists who are making people aware of the atrocities the Israeli government has committed, however because of a marginalized few who use lies in their reports about Israeli actions those spreading the truth are discredited, paving the way for American intervention on behalf of Israel with the ability to dismiss any atrocity stories as propaganda by a marginalized few.

If America were to back down from an invasion of Iraq and allow it's forces to remain in the Gulf one country would stand out as the target of American aggression, Iran. Iran has been wrongly labeled as part of an "Axis of evil" by American President Bush in his "War on terror," despite the fact that Iran has captured every terrorist that has entered Iran. And unlike most nations in the Persian Gulf Iran is the only nation with an industrial base that can manufacture it's own fighter planes and battle tanks as well as field an army of some 1,000,000 soldiers if an invasion were to occur. At present there are many Iranian dissident groups that demand reform as well as the removal of the Islamic government that rules Iran at present.

While many Iranians want reform and the removal of the current government many are not particular as to how they want reform to occur. At present many Iranian dissident groups that want to take militant action against their government receive backing from America and use media manipulation to spread their views, even calling for American armed intervention.

Should these groups succeed the result would be destructive. Here's how the scenario would unfold if an armed rebellion were to occur in Iran. Iranian rebels would score small initial victories against the Islamic government, which would crush the rebellion with overwhelming force. Iranian rebels would then use the media to leak out their version of events to the world, mainly America, which would prompt America to send it's forces to interfere on behalf of the Iranian rebels. If war were to break out between Iran and America Iranian industry would be initially destroyed by American air strikes.

If such a war were to last more than a week the global community, mainly Iran's Arab allies, India, China, and Russia, would get involved, raising the threat of a nuclear war. At present Americans are aware of how life is in Iran and American forces are baiting Iran to start a war. Consider that one of the American Carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf is to be decommissioned in April 2003. Some in Iran might see this as an opportunity to inflict serious damage to the American military. What most in Iran don't realize is that is costs less for America to pension off the survivors of an armed attack than to decommission a warship, meaning that a serious attack by Iran on That Carrier battle group that is to be decommissioned would save American taxpayers money as well as give America cause to intervene in a region where it want's to extend it's influence. Another factor that influences Iran now is religion.

The Zoroastrian Magi of the ancient Persian Empire that once ruled Iran predicted that Frashegird, the final judgment, would occur in their year 11973. 11973 begins on March 21, 2003. If a massive attack were to happen to Iran some would assume that would be a physical manifestation of Frashegird, causing many in Iran not to fight in the assumption that it is part of Frashegird.

If American forces do not leave the Persian Gulf they will certainly cause nothing but pain, suffering, death, and destruction. It is up to every one of us to make sure this does not happen.

Peter Khan Zendran

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