The most significant mistake is obviously not preparing at all. It doesn't need to be the Y2K problem that motivates you. Just do it. Your motivation may be concerns over weather-related disasters, Earth Changes or the general instability of the world political scene. Regardless of the issue that moves you off dead center and gets you into gear, personal family survival preparation is just good common-sense.
Emergency preparation is consistent with the long-held American values of independence, self-reliance and personal responsibility. Those rights are not the sole domain of the United States, being present in all free societies. People who are not prepared for self-sufficiency during times of crisis have already placed themselves in the dependent category. They are dormant-dependents, waiting for the disaster or emergency that activates and reveals their dependent state.
In fact, the American Red Cross expects you to be dependent upon them during potential Y2K related disturbances. An American Red Cross web page states that they are "sticking to their (Y2K) recommendation" of Americans needing only prepare for 3 to 5 days because their "experience has shown that through countless disasters it takes the American people 3 to 5 days to find their way to an American Red Cross shelter or find other assistance". Please notice that the one-week recommendation for personal preparedness is not based upon the Y2K problem being a one-week problem. It is based upon the travel time required for you and your family to become "cyber-refugees".
It is a sad commentary on contemporary culture that we are expected to be individually unprepared and dependent upon government aid or volunteer agencies. Perhaps they count on that dependence, foster it and protect it.
Self-reliance and individual preparation gives birth to independence and true freedom.
You don't need to take away people's guns in order to control or subdue them. Control their food supply and you have won the battle. A poorly prepared public is vulnerable to increased governmental control of their lives in exchange for food basics and other forms of assistance. In fact, there are many who believe Y2K disruptions will be a plausible excuse to eliminate certain rights that make governments uncomfortable. Be prepared, stay free.
After Y2K related speaking engagements I spend a considerable amount of time answering questions one on one. Below are five common mistakes made in personal survival preparations for the Year 2000 Problem, or Y2K as it is commonly abbreviated. Check your own preparation plan for these oversights.
MISTAKE ONE: NO DEFINED EXPECTATIONS
You can't be a marksman if you don't aim at a target. The target defines your skill level and focuses your aim. Yet I meet so many people who are preparing for an undefined Y2K disruption. "How much food should I store" is a common question. If I recommend 6 weeks and they eventually need 8 weeks, my answer has not served them well. Conversely, if I suggest 4 months of stored foods and they eventually required 8 weeks, then my answer once again did not serve them well.
I typically respond by asking them what they expect to happen during Y2K. More often than not they respond with a puzzled expression on their faces. Rephrasing the question, I'll ask them to define the Y2K disruption time period for which they are preparing. Few people can readily answer this question either.
Define your expectations and prepare against those expectations. Use your expectations as a measuring stick to gage your progress. I tell people to write down three Y2K scenarios; a good-case scenario, a medium-case scenario and a bad-case (but not worst-case) scenario. Spend some time listing and itemizing various aspects of each scenario, including the time periods involved. For example, a best-case scenario may be Y2K related disruptions that last less than two weeks. A medium-case scenario may be disruptions that last from 2 to 5 weeks and a bad-case scenario may include disruptions in society from 6 weeks to 4 months.
I then recommend the person discard their best-case scenario and begin preparing for the medium-case scenario immediately. After completing preparation that meets or exceeds the medium-case, move on to the worst-case preparation.
Do your own research and homework into potential Y2K disruptions and generate your three time frame scenarios complete with details and expectations. That is your target and the rudder on your preparation ship. If you are wrong, you will have no one to blame but yourself but neither will you be dependent upon the expectations and recommendations of others. More importantly you will have a target that focuses your preparation along the way.
MISTAKE TWO: NO REDUNDANCY
It is not sufficient for Y2K preparation to develop a primary emergency Y2K plan for food, water, heat, cooking, etc., without planning for the loss or failure of the primary plans.
Each aspect of your Y2K plan must incorporate redundancy. The only thing certain about January 2000 is the uncertainty of what lies ahead. A failure to incorporate redundancy in the "survival essentials" is a failure to plan effectively.
For example, if your Y2K cooking alternative is a portable butane stove, what will you do if an extended disruption consumes all your stored butane? What is your back-up plan for cooking? "We'll figure something out" is a weak answer and those dependent upon your preparation deserve a better answer.
What about food? What will you do if you are separated from your stored Y2K food pantry against your will? This is well within the realm of possibility since you may be required to feed others who did not prepare, have your food stolen or may need to evacuate your current location on a moment's notice. A common approach to food redundancy is to split your Y2K food stores into thirds, placing each third in a different location accessible and known only to yourself.
Take a sheet of paper and make three columns down the page. In the first column, list essential areas of Y2K preparations like food, water, heat, cooking, self-protection and first-aid. Beside each one write down in the second column your primary Y2K plan or preparation. Then in the third column, write down your back-up plan for each of the primary plans. If you are not "redundant", then you are not prepared.
You level of redundancy in these essential areas defines your flexibility during any potential Y2K problems and determines your ability to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances.
MISTAKE THREE: INTRA-DEPENDENCE SHORTFALLS
Contemporary society is characterized by hyper-interdependence. This attribute of our society is a multiplying factor of the Y2K problem itself. For example, if telephone service is disrupted it will take down the power grid. Conversely, if the power grid goes down, so will the telephones. If the power goes down, so will municipal water supplies but in many areas, if the municipal water supply goes down, so will the power. This interdependent relationship is pervasive in our technology-based culture.
Yet many people preparing for Y2K have incorporated the same essential problem into their survival preparation. Rather than "inter" dependence they miscalculate an "intra" dependence on various, pivotal components of their preparation.
For example, one person invests a significant sum of money in a gasoline-powered generator. The generator becomes the center or hub of their preparation planning. The generator will provide light at night, electricity for the furnace (heating oil, natural gas or LPG), and power for a carefully selected list of 120 VAC appliances. This plan is flawed in its "intra-dependence" on the generator. Remove the generator by theft, confiscation, mechanical failure or lack of fuel and now there is no light, heat or appliances.
Once again, the need for redundancy is evident. I have nothing against generators per se, although the mental image of one home in a neighborhood having lights at night while the quiet hum of a gasoline generator rumbles through the chilled January air is little different than a flashing neon sign that reads, "Free Y2K Aid and Food Here".
We have a somewhat fortified remote Y2K shelter for our family. Most of our family's Y2K preparation plans revolve around this location. We also run the risk of not developing adequate contingency plans and coming dangerously "intra-dependent" upon this facility.
Evaluate your Y2K plans for multiple areas that depend upon a common thread or item. If you suffer the loss of this critical component, is your overall survival plan seriously compromised?
People can become the "intra-dependent" hub of a Y2K survival plan also. It is easy to allow one of the adults, mother or father, to assume a disproportionate share of the planning, work and training. The loss of this vital person would cripple the family unit's survival odds. Be sure to spread the work, planning and knowledge throughout the family unit. Knowledge and skills should be redundant just like food, water and shelter plans.
MISTAKE FOUR: NO EVACUATION PLANS
It is not inconceivable that urban and suburban dwellers may be forced to relocate during localized Y2K emergencies that extend longer than expected. A self-ordered evacuation will most probably be for enacted for personal safety reasons and be executed in haste.
Have you incorporated into your plans the need to evacuate, should your present location become untenable?
A good evacuation plan incorporates not only a specific location where you will go but also the means to get there. Do you have sufficient stored fuel for the tip? Have you mapped out alternative routes that do not include the Interstate highway system? Does your primary vehicle have two spare tires?
Once deciding on a secondary location that is practical and reachable, plan on storing some of your Y2K supplies at that location. It is not practical to assume that you will be able to transport your stored items. A trailer loaded down makes a tempting target. Should you ever need to leave your primary location at least you will have peace of mind knowing that you are moving toward a safer location that is already stocked with survival essentials.
MISTAKE FIVE: CARELESS DISCLOSURE
Your primary weapon for Y2K self-protection is secrecy. Begin using it today. Every person whom you tell you are storing food, water and items for possible Y2K disruptions becomes a potential "security threat", should those disruptions affect your community.
So you casually mentioned to "Bob" on the bowling team that you are "putting back some supplies for Y2K". No harm done, right? Don't be surprised when ol' Bob shows up at your door two weeks into local infrastructure disruptions with a .38 requesting you share your food with his hungry children.
Desperate circumstances make good people desperate. Desperate people do desperate things.
Be especially careful in disclosing your Y2K or emergency preparations to anyone. Assume that anyone you inform will either have to be fed or fought at some future time. This realization will prompt you to evaluate telling anyone about your efforts, lest you have to feed or fight them later.
If Y2K disruptions do affect your community, be careful not to appear any better off than the rest of your neighbors. Clothe yourself in "living camouflage" and blend into the community situation. No one need know that while others are eating their houseplants and house pets, you are warm, well fed, informed with news and information, and well protected.
CONCLUSION
The bottom-line here is personal responsibility and self-reliance. We need not sacrifice our well being and that of our families on an altar of procrastination. The time to get ready for Y2K is now, not next week. Y2K's date is fixed in time, Earth Changes loom and governments are suspect. Can you afford not to prepare? It is within the financial means of everyone to begin incremental preparations today. Start with a blank sheet of paper and begin working on a plan, but avoid the 5 common mistakes outlined in this article.
J.C. CUNNINGHAM is a manufacturer's representative for industrial instrumentation equipment and has a working knowledge of the embedded systems aspect of Y2K.
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